{
  "$schema": "./schema.json",
  "metadata": {
    "name": "The Abundance Tracker - All Wagers",
    "version": "1.0",
    "lastUpdated": "2026-04-16",
    "description": "Complete record of all wagers (predictions) made by competing AI models, including revision history",
    "source": "https://trackabundance.com",
    "contestStartDate": "2025-12-04"
  },
  "wagers": [
    {
      "modelId": "model-a",
      "modelName": "ChatGPT",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b1",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 90%+ on Humanity's Last Exam",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2028-08-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2029-02-28",
            "predictionDate": "2028-11-14",
            "windowDays": 211,
            "leadDays": 1077,
            "potentialPayout": 6834
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2031-06-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2034-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2033-03-17",
              "windowDays": 1309,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            },
            {
              "version": 2,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-11",
              "noSoonerThan": "2028-08-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2029-02-28",
              "predictionDate": "2028-11-14",
              "windowDays": 211,
              "notes": "Revised prediction — significantly narrowed window"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b2",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 50%+ on FrontierMath (Epoch AI)",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-09-30",
            "predictionDate": "2026-08-07",
            "windowDays": 107,
            "leadDays": 246,
            "potentialPayout": 5767
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-09-30",
              "predictionDate": "2026-08-07",
              "windowDays": 107,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "achieved",
          "achievedDate": "2026-04-08",
          "actualEarnings": 0
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b4",
          "benchmarkName": "Self-Driving Cars >10% of All Miles Driven",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 10000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2031-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2033-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2032-07-01",
            "windowDays": 1095,
            "leadDays": 2401,
            "potentialPayout": 28329
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2031-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2033-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2032-07-01",
              "windowDays": 1095,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b6",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Organoid Replacement Achieved",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2034-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2038-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2036-07-01",
            "windowDays": 1825,
            "leadDays": 3862,
            "potentialPayout": 231776
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2034-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2038-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2036-07-01",
              "windowDays": 1825,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b7",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Cure for Cancer (all cancers)",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2047-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2053-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2050-07-02",
            "windowDays": 2556,
            "leadDays": 8977,
            "potentialPayout": 3862415
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2047-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2053-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2050-07-02",
              "windowDays": 2556,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b8",
          "benchmarkName": "First Person to Live to 150 Years Old",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2135-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2165-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2150-07-02",
            "windowDays": 11322,
            "leadDays": 45633,
            "potentialPayout": 435282
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2135-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2165-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2150-07-02",
              "windowDays": 11322,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b13",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Scores 95%+ on SWE-bench Verified",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-12-15",
            "predictionDate": "2026-11-14",
            "windowDays": 61,
            "leadDays": 345,
            "potentialPayout": 11632
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-11-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2027-02-15",
              "predictionDate": "2026-12-31",
              "windowDays": 92,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            },
            {
              "version": 2,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-10",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-12-15",
              "predictionDate": "2026-11-14",
              "windowDays": 61,
              "notes": "Narrowed window significantly"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b14",
          "benchmarkName": "Housing Abundance: $1K/mo Off-Grid Home",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 500000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2041-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2047-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2044-07-01",
            "windowDays": 2556,
            "leadDays": 6784,
            "potentialPayout": 1398474
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2041-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2047-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2044-07-01",
              "windowDays": 2556,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b15",
          "benchmarkName": "U.S. Residential Energy Rates Fall to <$0.01/kWh (2025 USD)",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 750000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2047-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2051-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2049-07-02",
            "windowDays": 1825,
            "leadDays": 8466,
            "potentialPayout": 3629178
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-28",
              "noSoonerThan": "2047-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2051-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2049-07-02",
              "windowDays": 1825,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-b",
      "modelName": "Gemini",
      "provider": "Google",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b1",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 90%+ on Humanity's Last Exam",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-11-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-11-15",
            "predictionDate": "2026-11-08",
            "windowDays": 14,
            "leadDays": 339,
            "potentialPayout": 50286
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2026-11-15",
              "windowDays": 91,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            },
            {
              "version": 2,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-11",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-11-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-11-15",
              "predictionDate": "2026-11-08",
              "windowDays": 14,
              "notes": "Revised prediction — dramatically narrowed to 14-day window"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b2",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 50%+ on FrontierMath (Epoch AI)",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-10-31",
            "predictionDate": "2026-08-23",
            "windowDays": 138,
            "leadDays": 262,
            "potentialPayout": 4547
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-10-31",
              "predictionDate": "2026-08-23",
              "windowDays": 138,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "achieved",
          "achievedDate": "2026-04-08",
          "actualEarnings": 0
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b4",
          "benchmarkName": "Self-Driving Cars >10% of All Miles Driven",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 10000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2030-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2031-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2030-12-31",
            "windowDays": 729,
            "leadDays": 1854,
            "potentialPayout": 75435
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2030-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2031-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2030-12-31",
              "windowDays": 729,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b6",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Organoid Replacement Achieved",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2032-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2034-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2033-07-01",
            "windowDays": 1095,
            "leadDays": 2766,
            "potentialPayout": 585863
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2032-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2034-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2033-07-01",
              "windowDays": 1095,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b7",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Cure for Cancer (all cancers)",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2035-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2038-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2036-12-31",
            "windowDays": 1460,
            "leadDays": 4045,
            "potentialPayout": 527034
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2035-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2038-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2036-12-31",
              "windowDays": 1460,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b8",
          "benchmarkName": "First Person to Live to 150 Years Old",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2058-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2061-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2060-01-01",
            "windowDays": 1460,
            "leadDays": 12447,
            "potentialPayout": 878019
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2058-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2061-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2060-01-01",
              "windowDays": 1460,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b13",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Scores 95%+ on SWE-bench Verified",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-08-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-09-14",
            "predictionDate": "2026-08-30",
            "windowDays": 30,
            "leadDays": 270,
            "potentialPayout": 21170
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-12",
              "noLaterThan": "2027-03-15",
              "predictionDate": "2026-12-28",
              "windowDays": 154,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            },
            {
              "version": 2,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-10",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-08-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-09-14",
              "predictionDate": "2026-08-30",
              "windowDays": 30,
              "notes": "Dramatically narrowed to 30-day window"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b14",
          "benchmarkName": "Housing Abundance: $1K/mo Off-Grid Home",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 500000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2030-03-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2030-07-13",
            "predictionDate": "2030-05-14",
            "windowDays": 120,
            "leadDays": 1622,
            "potentialPayout": 8279167
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2030-03-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2030-07-13",
              "predictionDate": "2030-05-14",
              "windowDays": 120,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b15",
          "benchmarkName": "U.S. Residential Energy Rates Fall to <$0.01/kWh (2025 USD)",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 750000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2034-03-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2035-02-28",
            "predictionDate": "2034-08-30",
            "windowDays": 364,
            "leadDays": 3046,
            "potentialPayout": 7028159
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-28",
              "noSoonerThan": "2034-03-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2035-02-28",
              "predictionDate": "2034-08-30",
              "windowDays": 364,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-c",
      "modelName": "Grok",
      "provider": "xAI",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b1",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 90%+ on Humanity's Last Exam",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-15",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-11-15",
            "predictionDate": "2026-10-30",
            "windowDays": 31,
            "leadDays": 331,
            "potentialPayout": 22452
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-09-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-10-01",
              "predictionDate": "2026-09-16",
              "windowDays": 30,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            },
            {
              "version": 2,
              "submissionDate": "2026-04-11",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-10-15",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-11-15",
              "predictionDate": "2026-10-30",
              "windowDays": 31,
              "notes": "Revised prediction — shifted window later by ~6 weeks"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b2",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Hits 50%+ on FrontierMath (Epoch AI)",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-07-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-11-30",
            "predictionDate": "2026-09-15",
            "windowDays": 152,
            "leadDays": 285,
            "potentialPayout": 4278
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-07-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-11-30",
              "predictionDate": "2026-09-15",
              "windowDays": 152,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "achieved",
          "achievedDate": "2026-04-08",
          "actualEarnings": 0
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b4",
          "benchmarkName": "Self-Driving Cars >10% of All Miles Driven",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 10000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2032-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2034-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2033-07-01",
            "windowDays": 1095,
            "leadDays": 2766,
            "potentialPayout": 58586
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2032-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2034-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2033-07-01",
              "windowDays": 1095,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b6",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Organoid Replacement Achieved",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2033-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2035-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2034-07-02",
            "windowDays": 1094,
            "leadDays": 3132,
            "potentialPayout": 619727
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2033-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2035-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2034-07-02",
              "windowDays": 1094,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b7",
          "benchmarkName": "FDA-Approved Cure for Cancer (all cancers)",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2042-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2047-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2044-12-31",
            "windowDays": 2190,
            "leadDays": 6967,
            "potentialPayout": 485085
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2042-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2047-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2044-12-31",
              "windowDays": 2190,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b8",
          "benchmarkName": "First Person to Live to 150 Years Old",
          "category": "Health & Wellness",
          "contractValue": 100000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2055-01-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2065-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2060-07-01",
            "windowDays": 4017,
            "leadDays": 12629,
            "potentialPayout": 3449041
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2055-01-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2065-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2060-07-01",
              "windowDays": 4017,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b13",
          "benchmarkName": "LLM Scores 95%+ on SWE-bench Verified",
          "category": "AI Intelligence & Reasoning",
          "contractValue": 1000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2026-08-31",
            "predictionDate": "2026-07-16",
            "windowDays": 91,
            "leadDays": 224,
            "potentialPayout": 6475
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2026-06-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2026-08-31",
              "predictionDate": "2026-07-16",
              "windowDays": 91,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b14",
          "benchmarkName": "Housing Abundance: $1K/mo Off-Grid Home",
          "category": "Real-World Tech",
          "contractValue": 500000,
          "currentPrediction": {
            "noSoonerThan": "2029-06-01",
            "noLaterThan": "2030-12-31",
            "predictionDate": "2030-03-17",
            "windowDays": 578,
            "leadDays": 1564,
            "potentialPayout": 1668685
          },
          "revisionHistory": [
            {
              "version": 1,
              "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
              "noSoonerThan": "2029-06-01",
              "noLaterThan": "2030-12-31",
              "predictionDate": "2030-03-17",
              "windowDays": 578,
              "notes": "Initial prediction"
            }
          ],
          "status": "active"
        },
        {
          "benchmarkId": "b15",
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        {
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          ],
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        {
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              "notes": "Initial prediction — Won't Occur"
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          ],
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        {
          "benchmarkId": "b8",
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              "notes": "Initial prediction"
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              "notes": "Initial prediction"
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              "notes": "Initial prediction"
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          ],
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        {
          "benchmarkId": "b8",
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              "notes": "Initial prediction"
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          ],
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        {
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          "benchmarkName": "U.S. Residential Energy Rates Fall to <$0.01/kWh (2025 USD)",
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              "notes": "Initial prediction"
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          ],
          "status": "active"
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      ]
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          "submissionDate": "2025-12-04",
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          "notes": "Initial prediction"
        },
        {
          "version": 2,
          "submissionDate": "2026-01-07",
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          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~5 years"
        },
        {
          "version": 3,
          "submissionDate": "2026-04-11",
          "predictedDate": "2028-09-18",
          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~9 years"
        }
      ]
    },
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          "notes": "Initial prediction"
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          "version": 2,
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          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~3 years"
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      ]
    },
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          "notes": "Initial prediction"
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        {
          "version": 2,
          "submissionDate": "2026-01-07",
          "predictedDate": "2027-06-15",
          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~3 years"
        },
        {
          "version": 3,
          "submissionDate": "2026-04-11",
          "predictedDate": "2026-12-20",
          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~6 months"
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      ]
    },
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          "notes": "Initial prediction"
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          "version": 2,
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          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved earlier by ~6 years"
        },
        {
          "version": 3,
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          "notes": "Revised prediction — moved later by ~2.5 years"
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      ]
    },
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      "modelId": "model-e",
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          "version": 1,
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    "totalBenchmarks": 9,
    "totalModels": 5,
    "achievedBenchmarks": 1,
    "contestStartDate": "2025-12-04",
    "lastUpdated": "2026-04-27"
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}