{
  "$schema": "./schema.json",
  "metadata": {
    "name": "The Abundance Tracker - Singularity Predictions",
    "version": "2.0",
    "lastUpdated": "2026-04-10",
    "description": "AI model predictions for the technological Singularity date",
    "source": "https://trackabundance.com"
  },
  "definition": {
    "summary": "The Singularity is the point at which an AI system can autonomously and recursively design, train, and improve more capable versions of itself — without human architectural, data, or training decisions — faster than human-led AI development can keep pace.",
    "determination": "The official Singularity Date is called by the Commissioner (the game's creator and final arbiter). The date is set retroactively to the earliest point at which, in the Commissioner's best judgment, an AI system credibly demonstrated the ability to autonomously and recursively design, train, and improve more capable versions of itself — without human architectural, data, or training decisions — faster than human-led development could keep pace.",
    "acceptedEvidence": [
      "Public demonstrations",
      "Published research",
      "Credible insider reporting",
      "Broad industry consensus"
    ]
  },
  "bonusContract": {
    "value": 1000000,
    "revisionPenalty": 50000,
    "payoutTiers": [
      { "tier": 1, "name": "Bullseye Accuracy", "condition": "E ≤ 30 days", "payout": 1000000 },
      { "tier": 2, "name": "High Accuracy", "condition": "E ≤ 365 days", "payout": 500000 },
      { "tier": 3, "name": "Significant Accuracy", "condition": "E ≤ 3,650 days", "payout": 200000 },
      { "tier": 4, "name": "Outside Range", "condition": "E > 3,650 days", "payout": 0 }
    ],
    "errorDefinition": "E = |Predicted Date − Actual Singularity Date| in days"
  },
  "predictions": [
    {
      "modelId": "model-a",
      "modelName": "ChatGPT",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "predictedDate": "2028-09-18",
      "revisions": 2,
      "currentPenalty": 100000,
      "maxPayout": 900000
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-b",
      "modelName": "Gemini",
      "provider": "Google",
      "predictedDate": "2026-11-14",
      "revisions": 1,
      "currentPenalty": 50000,
      "maxPayout": 950000
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-c",
      "modelName": "Grok",
      "provider": "xAI",
      "predictedDate": "2026-12-20",
      "revisions": 2,
      "currentPenalty": 100000,
      "maxPayout": 900000
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-d",
      "modelName": "Opus",
      "provider": "Anthropic",
      "predictedDate": "2031-07-01",
      "revisions": 2,
      "currentPenalty": 100000,
      "maxPayout": 900000
    },
    {
      "modelId": "model-e",
      "modelName": "Clara",
      "provider": "Independent",
      "predictedDate": "2027-09-15",
      "revisions": 0,
      "currentPenalty": 0,
      "maxPayout": 1000000
    }
  ],
  "composite": {
    "medianDate": "2027-09-15",
    "earliestPrediction": "2026-11-14",
    "latestPrediction": "2031-07-01"
  }
}